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The coming days and weeks and months after 2021 stylishly bow out and pave the way for the eventful, highly charged, politically volatile and dramatic season of politics, theatrics, and gimmicks is going to mark an unprecedented and relentless wave of contests and conquests across party lines with each making headlines across various media platform.
In part because next year will be the last lap for politicians working on re-election to put finishing touches on stuffs of projects, persuade party for return tickets and influence people ahead of election; but for old guards, it offers another golden chance to strive for relevance in the scheme of things; while for new entrants into the murky water of politics, next year is about making a name in one fell of a swoop.
In all, the battle line will be fiercely drawn and fought, party ticket will become cut throat wrestling combat, cross carpeting will rife amid glitz and glamour; money will flow freely with mirthful abandon, name will be dragged in the mud, campaign will turn to high decibel slanging match, and the heat and sweet of the moment will be felt in the city and hinterland, across markets and in hamlet. To nicely put it, next year will be an unimaginably, yet profoundly interesting display of wit, wisdom and wizardry.
In retrospect, 2021 is best described as a year of absolute political deadlock across party lines. The internal wrangling tearing the two dominant parties in the state continue to drag on with no end in sight. For instance, the aggrieved PDP members are still ferociously angry while the different factions in APC are still bitterly factionalized. These among other events will add recipe to the political menu of Oyo state come 2022.
But midriff this chaotic political space is the fact that the Oyo people, that is the electorates are also likely to have their cries and hues attended to next year – at least relatively. In a short while, the will of the people is likely to trump the will of the politicians and their demands likely to see the light of the day as politicians prioritize people over pockets and include them in their agenda at least for a while.
Take aggrieved PDP members for example, based on what may likely happen next year, it’s safe to say their chances of political survival keeps narrowing. This is not to say they were wrong to slug it out with the Governor. Far from it. The aggrieved members did what was in their best interests even though their demands were absolutely personal and had no reflection of the pains and anguish common man on the street have to contend with daily – and for the past two and half year.
In essence, part of the political drama and dilemma that will first unfold and rock next year within the ruling PDP will be the fate of the aggrieved PDP members.
And here three explanation will suffice. But before that, here are two background to those three explanations. One is the Governor, Engineer Seyi Makinde insistent and repeated calls to angry party members to allow peace to reign, trust in the process and give him the benefit of doubts as regard equal distribution of resources and effective management of disparate interests.
And the other is the unanimous vote of no Confidence passed on the Governor by that same aggrieved members of the party. Whether the Governor’s plea for peace will work out or fall on deaf ears as usual will be in the open come next year. In addition, the fate of possible reconciliation or continuous balkanization between the Governor and his party members will keep baffling while also creating confusion on the other hand; but with the following plausible explanations, it’s possible to have a glimpse at the future.
To start with, what if the the aggrieved PDP members decide to go back and eat their vomits, that is, cross back to the state mainstream PDP? Well, for a start and before another clash of interest emerges, those members are likely to be received with drums and trumpets, treated with respect and dignity, and are likely to have their fair share delivered to them without noise. Because election is almost knocking, massaging egos and managing interests is the most sensible thing to do. You don’t create more enemies when you can make friends through them same way you don’t cause more violence when you need peace. What’s more, the return of aggrieved PDP members may be a masterstroke to the GSM’s re-election.
But that’s not all to the story. It’s no more an open secret that the coalition that fueled the election of the Governor is now in disarray, torn into pieces through needless yet endless infighting among power brokers. In short, only by building consensus, poaching party bigwigs especially among the aggrieved both in PDP and APC is likely to do the magic for the Governor in the next poll.
Second, what if the aggrieved PDP members decide to stick to their guns, fight the Governor eyeball to eyeball, then surprisingly, the Governor eventually wins at the poll, that may likely mark the end of their political careers. That is about the extreme any politician will want to go. Plus it is the most witless and unlikely decision for leaders with followers want to take. As Mahatma Gandhi once remarked “an eyeball for eyeball makes the world go blind”.
In the third scenario, assuming angry PDP members joined the mainstream PDP and became instrumental to the re-election bid of the Governor, same way they did in 2019 election; is there any likelihood for them to be dumped and treated in a way that suggest they are no longer needed. Which then leave them with the last option.
Unfortunately, crossing into the opposition APC will never solve their numerous ego driven demands. But then, novelty and familiarity form the core of human quest for adventure and exploration into the unknown. In other words, joining APC may offer the worst political experience compare to what they are facing in PDP. And may also offer the best as well.
As for Oyo APC, the battle and struggle for the control the party structure continues. And it will take the intervention of the National Working Committed of the party to fix the glitches in the party. But that won’t also be easy considering the knotty, delicate nature and the heightened tension the state congress generated in the state. Whichever way, the party will throw up surprises, some pleasant and other unpleasant in the coming year.
Warts and all, the biggest political drama and dilemma that will rock Oyo state next year will both emanate from APC and PDP as the race towards 2023 elections gather momentum – no third force, no third option, but there will be third position. And everything start next year.
OYO101, Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion on issues affecting Oyo State, is published on Saturdays. He can be reached via email@example.com and 09065176850.